When the Globe & Mail reached out for my perspective on Trump’s de minimis suspension, I’ll be honest – my first reaction was something I can’t print in a family-friendly article. Here’s the thing: this isn’t just another policy tweak that’ll blow over in a few months. This has potential to be a seismic shift that’s about to fundamentally reshape how Canadian businesses operate in the digital economy.
And frankly, most people don’t realize just how bad this has the potential to be.
Let me paint you a picture. Over the past 20 years, I’ve watched hundreds of small Canadian businesses use that US$800 de minimis threshold as their lifeline to American customers. It was their golden ticket to the world’s biggest market—no tariffs, minimal paperwork, and the ability to compete on a level playing field.
That ticket just got torched.
When I told the Globe that a $55 order could now require an additional 45 minutes of documentation with no added financial benefit, I was being conservative. Bear with me while I break down what this really means for the average Canadian entrepreneur trying to make it in e-commerce.
Here’s what we know from our clients’ actual data: Canadian small businesses selling to the US typically see order values between $30-$150. These aren’t luxury purchases. We’re talking about handmade jewelry, organic skincare, specialty outdoor gear, artisan coffee. The bread and butter of Canadian creativity and innovation.
Now, let’s do some real math. Before this change:
After this change:
You know what happens? The customer doesn’t order again. Simple as that.
But here’s where it gets really ugly, and this is what I emphasized when speaking with the Globe about our small business community. The article touched on it, but I want to dig deeper into the psychological and operational devastation this creates.
Right now, thousands of Canadian creators on platforms like Etsy, Shopify, and Amazon Handmade are running profitable businesses with 70-90% of their sales coming from US customers. These aren’t venture-backed startups with million-dollar marketing budgets. These are real people paying real mortgages with their craft businesses.
Chris Jarvis from Ecom Logistics nailed it when he told the Globe that these businesses might leave the Canadian market entirely. Here’s what that looks like in practice: Sarah in Vancouver makes custom leather goods, sells $8,000 a month to US customers, $800 to Canadians. Does she spend her limited time and energy figuring out complex customs paperwork for her bread-and-butter US business, or does she just move her operation to Oregon and call it a day?
You know the answer.
This is where I get genuinely angry about short-sighted policy decisions. Canada has been quietly building one of the world’s most innovative small-scale manufacturing and creative economies. Our artisans, makers, and micro-entrepreneurs have been using e-commerce to punch way above their weight class, competing globally from small towns across the country.
That competitive advantage may have just evaporated overnight.
If these businesses relocate to the US (and they certainly have to consider it), we don’t just lose the jobs and tax revenue. We lose the innovation ecosystem, the supply chains, the local expertise and the entrepreneurial spirit that took decades to build.
Here’s what worries me most: this de minimis change is happening at exactly the wrong time for Canadian e-commerce exports.
Our data from our data visualization software Aperture shows that Canadian e-commerce businesses were just starting to recover from pandemic supply chain disruptions. Cross-border sales were growing at 23% year-over-year. Small businesses were finally figuring out digital marketing, international shipping and customer acquisition.
Now? All that momentum gets kneecapped.
Where I think the broader conversation needs to go beyond what we covered in the Globe piece. This isn’t just about small businesses losing US market access. This is about Canada losing its position as a launching pad for North American e-commerce expansion.
Think about it: international brands looking to enter North America often start in Canada because of our proximity to US markets and lower competitive intensity. With cross-border friction increasing dramatically, that strategic advantage disappears. New brands will just go directly to the US market bypassing Canada entirely.
So what do we do? Because sitting around complaining about Trump’s trade policies isn’t going to pay anyone’s rent.
First, Canadian e-commerce businesses need to get realistic about their US market strategy. If you’re selling products under $100 to American consumers, you need to either:
None of these are easy solutions but they’re the reality we’re dealing with.
Here’s where I’m going to get on my soapbox for a minute because this is exactly the kind of situation where smart government policy could make a massive difference.
Instead of spending billions on programs like CDAP that businesses can’t even access properly (don’t get me started on the issues with that program), how about:
These aren’t pie-in-the-sky ideas. They’re practical interventions that could help our business community adapt instead of just relocating. Recent rational decisions by the Carney administration, like rescinding the Digital Services Tax (DST) are a step in the right direction that show the current PMO better understands the impacts on small businesses.
In short, this de minimis disaster is going to hurt. A lot. But it’s also an opportunity to build a more resilient, diversified Canadian e-commerce economy.
The businesses that survive this transition will be the ones that:
The ones that don’t adapt? They’ll either close down or move south.
The Globe asked about the immediate consumer impacts of the de minimis suspension, but the real story is about the long-term structural damage to Canadian e-commerce competitiveness.
We’re about to lose a generation of small businesses that could have grown into the next Shopify or Canada Goose. We’re going to see reduced innovation, less competition, and fewer opportunities for Canadian entrepreneurs to build wealth through digital commerce.
This isn’t just a trade policy change. It’s an economic restructuring that will play out over the next decade.
The question is: are we going to adapt and build something stronger, or are we going to let our most innovative businesses pack up and head south?
From where I sit, watching real business owners make these impossible decisions every day, I know which way I’m betting. But I’d sure like to be wrong.
David Nagy is the founder of eCommerce Canada, which has helped over 400 businesses generate more than $1 billion in online sales. He is a recognized expert in digital commerce strategy and government policy analysis affecting small businesses. Connect with him at david@ecommercecanada.com